The Congress tail is up

The elections to five states mark the end of the unipolar politics PM Narendra Modi and BJP chief Amit Shah had sought to achieve. The BJP is no longer in the ruling arrangement in a wide belt running across the heart of India, from the north-west in Rajasthan to the shores of the Bay of Bengal in Odisha and West Bengal, with Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh in between. The BJP, despite the anti-incumbency in the three states of MP, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, and a definite rural dismay, did not quite roll over. It is noticeable that the Congress’ margin was the most impressive in Chhattisgarh where it lost almost its entire leadership in defections and a deadly Maoist ambush.  

In Rajasthan and MP, where it persisted with old warhorses, the party has struggled to achieve the half-way mark. It paid the price for shoddy governance in Mizoram and an injudicious alliance with a party in Telangana that had opposed the formation of the state. If Karnataka saw the etching of contours of a coalition, the Congress’ think-tank’s inability to settle alliances in the three Hindi heartland states is an indicator of the tough mountain ahead. The BSP and SP, the two leading parties in UP, are sceptical of the amount of political capital Congress will bring to the table. The tale is similar in several other electorally high-yielding states.

The three CMs will undoubtedly offer a breathing space to the Congress while signalling the end of BJP’s electoral invincibility and the start of a serious challenge in 2019. The indirect referendum is a thumbs down to Modi’s governance record. But there is no throwing in of the towel. The removal of an obdurate RBI chief suggests PM Modi will not let fiscal prudence come in the way of a financial package to inveigle his core constituencies. The project to crowbar potential regional allies away from the Congress too will continue apace. The Congress did nose ahead in the three Hindi heartland states, but its resourcefulness in striking alliances is up for a much sterner test elsewhere.