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Congress conundrum

As we come to the end of the road of campaign 2019, we have to note that it is the regional forces that have fought the BJP more robustly than the Congress.

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Saba Naqvi

As we come to the end of the road of campaign 2019, we have to note that it is the regional forces that have fought the BJP more robustly than the Congress. Outside of Punjab, the expectation is that in the states ruled by it, the Congress will not be able to match Assembly strength with the Lok Sabha results. 

The PM, too, has staked all his might in fighting the Mahagathbandhan (MGB) in Uttar Pradesh and Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal. Those are the states where he has addressed maximum rallies. This means fundamentally that the BJP saw its base threatened in UP and the opportunity to create a new base in Bengal. By the BJP’s own reckoning, therefore, we can conclude that the Congress-ruled states did not require so much prime ministerial effort. 

The spectacle of the smash-and-grab assault on Bengal and Mamata Banerjee has sent alarm bells ringing across several regional players. If the numbers do not add up for the BJP and the NDA, the regional players would try to create an alternative government. There are pitfalls in this exercise that were increased by the manner in which the Congress has handled the campaign at the national level. That is why it is very sensible that a line has now been put out that that the Congress will not insist on the PM’s post.

Till now, the party has not shown the strategic wisdom necessary for a national player. On one hand, Rahul Gandhi has matured as a speaker and carried himself with dignity during the assault on his late father but, on the other, the launch of Priyanka Gandhi on the eve of the General Election with the stated purpose of reviving the party for 2022 Assembly elections in UP was the most confusing move by the Congress. 

Here’s why. The greatest battle against the BJP has been fought by the MGB in Uttar Pradesh, but the Congress has jumped into this campaign saying it is reviving the party for 2022. In the future, therefore, the Congress will be viewed as competition by the MGB which would see a threat in Priyanka stepping on their turf were she to lead an Assembly campaign in 2022. The Congress has every right to fight for its future. But the question remains that why was Priyanka Gandhi launched as general secretary in charge of east UP so late in the day? A fight for 2022 need not have begun in the midst of 2019. 

Not that there will be any real improvement in seats for the Congress in UP after the Priyanka launch. In 2019,  its tally could be between three and five of the 80 seats in the state. The Congress has put out a line that it has chosen candidates designed to cut the votes of the BJP and help the MGB. But on four tours of UP, I found the following. First, the Congress was mostly irrelevant. Second, where it counted, it was actually harming the MGB more than the BJP.

SP leader Akhilesh Yadav confirmed this and spoke with bitterness about the Congress when I interviewed him after the fifth phase of voting was over. He said in the Congress, it is managers and not the leaders who speak to allies and only do so when they need something. He was emphatic about pursuing the joint front with the BSP in the future leading to 2022 as that, he said, is what Dr Ambedkar and Ram Manohar Lohia would have wanted. If there were to be such an opportunity it seemed that Akhilesh would back Mayawati for PM. Alternately, a decision to back another figure/party would be taken jointly. 

Regardless of what happens in 2019 it is in both their interests to stay together. They would fight the BJP and try to prevent any breach in their turf in the 2022 Assembly poll when the Congress would make a serious play for the minority vote. 

The MGB leaders will also not miss what happened in Delhi where an alliance between the Congress and the AAP failed to materialise. In a scenario where tactical voting seemed pointless, minorities in areas where their numbers are large such as the North-East Delhi seat from where former Congress CM Sheila Dixit is fighting and in the Chandni Chowk seat, flipped overnight from AAP to the Congress. Their vote may help the Congress put up a good show in some seats in Delhi while AAP would be damaged. This is the sort of trend that alarms regional parties.  

One of the reasons the Vajpayee-led BJP created a template for successful coalitions was that it was not in competition with regional forces. Now, better late than never, Sonia Gandhi has begun making moves to mollify potential allies instead of alienating them. 

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