No more Modi factor

Saba Naqvi

Since 2014, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been the colossus who shaped the politics of the country. He must go down in history as the individual who scripted the BJP’s geographical spread to new territories. That is why it has become the norm for sections of the media, notably TV channels, to present every mandate as pro-Modi (a few defeats that have come are quickly glossed over).

Therefore, I have little doubt that if either or both Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh are retained by the BJP for the fourth term in spite of anti- incumbency, the lazy response 

(designed to please party bosses) would be to credit the PM with turning the game around with his last-minute campaign. 

The ground realities suggest that Modi is not top of the mind of the voters (except in a few urban areas) and some of the excitement of seeing the new big show has waned. Instead of being about a single great leader, both MP and Chhattisgarh reflect the BJP’s capacity to build autonomous and strong state leadership. That’s a tradition from which Modi also benefited as the Gujarat CM for 12 years before he shifted to Delhi. 

In both states, the two BJP chief ministers have been strong leaders for the party with a grip on administration (unlike Yogi Adityanath in UP). The election is about the state leaders and local MLAs. One of the biggest takeaways for me after travelling in these two states is that Modi addressing a rally here or there will not be a game changer and remains, at this point, a peripheral event.  

Indeed, if there is a blowback from one big economic policy that is being felt now in the two BJP-ruled states, it is demonetisation. Two years after it was announced on November 8, 2016, the satisfaction of seeing the rich suffer potentially has vanished as economic problems have mounted and the business backers of the BJP and the poor curse the note ban. Linked to this is the overall disappointment over the non-creation of jobs as the note ban hit the manufacturing and construction sectors. 

Although neither of the CMs can be blamed, this Modi policy is a baggage that carries negative associations for the BJP. Price rise is the other big complaint, now controlled by the markets and Central policies, but people do tend to take their anger out on the immediate rulers. 

The struggle in voters’ minds is whether to go against local candidates whom they are unhappy with and to make the following calculation: can we risk deserting the BJP for the Congress? Both the longstanding CMs — Shivraj Singh Chauhan and Raman Singh —have delivered on certain schemes.

After the farmers’ agitation broke out in Mandsaur last year, the Madhya Pradesh Government responded with a scheme called the Bhavantar Bhugtan Yojana (price difference payment scheme) through which the farmers would be paid the difference between the official MSP and the rate at which they sell their crops or market price, whichever is higher. On paper, it is a good scheme that has been extended to 13 crops. 

The problem lies in the implementation as it is linked to possessing an Aadhaar number and applying online. One MP bureaucrat estimates that only 30 per cent of those eligible for benefits have got them. Aadhaar is, therefore, an added albatross and both state governments are carrying the burden of this, with people complaining of losing entitlements as opposed to getting them. 

The GST remains uniformly unpopular in urban hubs, again a policy imposed by the Centre. But in rural states, it is not the most significant issue. What has also hit farmers hard is the issue of power supply in MP and the CM writing off bills has so far only benefited the larger farmers, with the smaller ones still getting hefty bills. The third BJP state that also goes to the polls is being written off by party strategists, but no one will ask Modi to take the blame for the expected loss in Rajasthan. But if the PM is responsible for each win, surely CM Vasundhara Raje must not be solely responsible for the possible defeat? 

Modi is undoubtedly great at expansion. But his economic policies have also made the holding of bastions of the party, built by other leaders, much more challenging.