Mayawati and mahagathbandhan: Will she, won’t she?

Shahira Naim in Lucknow

Will the Congress victory in the three major Hindi-speaking states of Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan make Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) national president Mayawati reconsider her stand about joining the grand alliance at the national level?

The manner in which she grudgingly announced the support of her two MLAs in Madhya Pradesh to help the Congress form a government did not leave much room for interpretation.

Mayawati is not known to mince her words. In a brief press conference, she refused to acknowledge the Congress’ victory as anything other than the people having had to vote for the Congress for want of a better alternative. She did not miss the opportunity to mention that Congress had ruled these states for many years without giving a decent deal to the Dalits and other deprived communties.

Mayawati made it clear in no uncertain terms that though she did not agree either with the ideology or policies of the Congress, she was supporting it to keep the larger enemy of people, the BJP, at bay. Turning the tables on the Congress, the BSP supremo made it clear that she should not be taken for granted even if the Congress fortunes had improved after its victory. Her attitude towards the Congress remained adamant even after she grudgingly admitted that her party had performed less than expected in these three states.

The BSP has won two seats and 3 per cent votes in Chhattisgarh, two seats and 5 per cent votes in Madhya Pradesh and six seats and 4 per cent votes in Rajasthan. The party has doubled its tally from three to six MLAs in Rajasthan and from one to two MLAs in Chhattisgarh. However, it halved its number in Madhya Pradesh and has come down to two from four MLAs.

Both the BSP and the Samajwadi Party (SP) have supported the Congress out of sheer political compulsion. If the BJP would have somehow wrested power in MP, it would have severely dented the BSP and the SP’s anti-BJP credentials, a risk that these parties can ill-afford ahead of the Lok Sabha elections. Analysts say the same political compulsion might make Mayawati join the grand alliance. 

She also realises that this is not the time to build up a non-Congress, non- BJP national alliance. The Assembly results have made it clear that if a plausible alternative, needed to dislodge the BJP, has to be cobbled together at the national level, the Congress has to play the lead role in it.

Mayawati hopes to move closer to her goal through the magic mantra of her mentor and BSP founder Kanshi Ram — changing equations by acquiring the master key of power by any means. That is exactly what she has been doing and will continue to do. She perceives that joining a mahagathbandhan would reduce her bargaining power. However, she clearly did not expect Congress to reclaim three crucial cow-belt states. That is why she decided to stay away from the 21-member opposition meeting on December 10.

However, in the changed political scenario, Mayawati does not really have the choice of cold-shouldering the Congress. She does not have a single seat in the Lok Sabha and cannot risk repeating such a performance. With a resurgent Congress, the much awaited BSP-SP alliance in UP appears not so invincible without the Congress.

Badri Narayan, director, GB Pant Social Science Institute, says Mayawati can ill afford to play a spoilsport and not join such a political arrangement at the national level. According to him, the Congress has a safe 9 per cent vote share in UP. If the Muslims support it to dislodge the BJP nationally and even a fraction of the disgruntled Brahmins shift loyalties, the Congress will have a fair chance on its own.

Analysts also believe that in Uttar Pradesh a strategic alliance of the SP and the BSP, along with Rashtriya Lok Dal and the Congress, will be strong enough to challenge the BJP in this politically crucial state. 

It would not be surprising if BJP's disgruntled ally Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj party also switches sides.

Despite her posturing, Mayawati also knows that this is her best bet to dislodge the BJP from Uttar Pradesh without which a change of guard is difficult at the national level.

How soon would she and the Congress come to the negotiating table is something that remains to be seen.