LS polls: 25 bellwether seats that have shown particular trend

New Delhi, May 13 

Of the 543 seats up for grabs in the ongoing Lok Sabha elections, at least 25 are special in a certain sense.

These constituencies, spread across 10 states, are bellwether seats which have traditionally been won, most of the times, by the parties which eventually went on to form the government at the Centre.

The oldest among these bellwethers seats is Valsad in Gujarat. It has been following the trend since its formation in 1957.

Gujarat’s 1951-born Jamnagar, Junagadh and Banaskantha Lok Sabha constituencies are also bellwether seats, with the general elections of 1967 and 1991 being an exception.

In Banaskantha seat, 1996 was also an exception, while in Jamnagar 2009 showed a different trend.

Formed in 1977, the Porbandar Lok Sabha constituency has not followed the trend in 2009 and 2004.

In Delhi, three of the seven Lok Sabha seats are the bellwethers—East Delhi, New Delhi and Chandni Chowk.

While New Delhi seat has been following the trend since the 1992 by-elections, Chandni Chowk constituency has been a bellwether seat since 1998 and East Delhi since 1996.

Beed in Maharashtra is another such seat which has always elected the party which formed the government at the Centre.

The only exception was 2009 when Gopinath Munde of BJP was elected while the Congress-led UPA was re-elected at the Centre.

The Mumbai North West Lok Sabha constituency has followed the trend since its formation in 1967. But again, the 1980, 1989 and 1999 elections were exceptions.

In Maharashtra, Nashik is another such constituency, with the exceptions being the elections of 1957, 1977 and 1998.

Among the 10 Lok Sabha seats in Haryana, Faridabad, Gurugram, Karnal and Kurukshetra are such bellwether constituencies.

Faridabad has been a bellwether since the time of its formation in 1977, with 1989 being an exception.

Gurugram Lok Sabha seat in Haryana, which came into being in 1952, has seen seven general elections, except for the period between 1977 and 2008 during which it was a part of Faridabad constituency.

It, too, has always elected a party which went on to form the government at the Centre, with the exception being 1967.

The Karnal constituency in the same state, barring 1962, 1989 and 1998 Lok Sabha polls, also has proven to be a bellwether since the first general elections.

In Kurukshetra Lok Sabha seat also in Haryana, the trend was followed in all the elections since 1957 barring 1980, 1996 and 1998 general elections.

Himachal Pradesh’s Mandi Lok Sabha seat is also a bellwether since the first Lok Sabha in 1952, with the 1996 Lok Sabha elections being an exception.

In Jammu and Kashmir, Jammu Lok Sabha constituency is a bellwether, with 1977, 1989 and 1996 Lok Sabah polls being exceptions.

In Jharkhand, there are two bellwether Lok Sabha seats—Palamu and Ranchi.

However, for Palamu, 1962 and 1991 elections were an exception while for Ranchi seat 1957 and 1991 elections were exceptions.

Bihar has one bellwether seat—Sasaram where 1980 and 1991 Lok Sabha elections were the exceptions.

In Madhya Pradesh, three 1951 born constituencies—Shahdol, Mandla and Khandwa—have been the bellwethers.

For Shahdol, 1951, 1962, 1971 and 2004 elections were exceptions while for Mandla seat, 1989 and 2004 elections showed a different trend.

For Khandwa, the only exception was the 2004 elections.

In Bhilwara and Ganganagar constituencies of Rajasthan, the trend was followed since 1977, with the elections of 1998 and 2004 being an exception. — IANS