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It’s curtains, but not the end

Fifty days after it started, it is curtains over the theatre of the absurd in Sri Lanka.

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Maj-Gen Ashok K Mehta (Retd)
former GoC, IPKF, Sri Lanka

Fifty days after it started, it is curtains over the theatre of the absurd in Sri Lanka. President Maithripala Sirisena has had to eat his words and reinstate PM Ranil Wickremesinghe — as forecast in these columns last month — along with whom, Sri Lanka saw its first-ever National Unity Government (NUG) come into office on January 15, 2015. India and the West will heave a sigh of relief over the pro-China strongman and former President and PM Mahinda Rajapaksa’s success in committing political hara-kiri by indulging in the most crass constitutional power-grab in cahoots with Sirisena. The other  casualty in this failed coup is Sirisena himself, the man most insecure since he triggered the crisis on October 26,  inflicting incalculable damage on the body politic and economy of the country. A more subtle way of removing Wickremesinghe might have been to bring down the budget proposal to have been presented by him on November 5, days before Sirisena’s October 26 action. 

During this bizarre play of events, the country’s highest and most decorated military officer, Chief of Defence Staff, Admiral Ravindra Wijegunaratne, had to face the ignominy of being sent into remand custody for a week as ‘Prisoner No. 9550’. In a political vacuum, with two squabbling PMs, with neither’s writ running due to court stays on the presidential gazette, proroguing and later dissolving Parliament as well as on Rajapaksa functioning as PM, the remand was not surprising. By ruling that the dismissal of Wickremesinghe and appointment of Rajapaksa as PM and the dissolution of Parliament as unconstitutional, the Supreme Court has held up the majesty of law and the 19th Amendment. Diminished in image and stature, Sirisena has caused grievous harm to the people at the height of the Christmas and New Year tourist  season, with bulk cancellations and the Sri Lanka rupee plunging to a low of Rs 177 to the dollar. Global credit rating agencies have downgraded Sri Lanka’s credit rating.

Sirisena’s psychological war against Wickremesinghe’s United National Party and his allies and against the Supreme Court failed miserably. He made his pathological aversion to reappointing Wickremesinghe public, even threatening to resign, thereby compounding the crisis. ‘I will not stay for a minute…I will return to my farm in Pollonaruwa but never reinstate Wickremesinghe even if all 225 MPs voted for him’. He tried his best to get the UNP elect a new leader of the party whom he would appoint PM, but the UNP and its allies were solidly behind Wickremesinghe, who not only won two confidence votes in Parliament, but also five floor tests. Rajapaksa, on the other hand, could not get the numbers he had assured Sirisena he would muster by hook or crook. In the end, a simple telephone call by  Sirisena to  Wickremesinghe glossed over their differences as he needed parliamentary approval before January 1 for an interim budget.  

Rajapaksa tried to secure a majority by getting the 14 Tamil National Alliance (TNA) MPs on his side by promising to address the pending ‘Tamil National Question’. But he has so bitterly alienated the Tamils that they do not trust him. Wickremesinghe has taken slow, but steady steps on a constitutional reform process that includes drafting a new constitution, curbing powers of the executive President, new electoral system, more effective devolution for minorities (Tamils) and effective steps towards achieving national reconciliation. This has included returning of land with the military in the north to Tamils, an accountability mechanism — Office of Missing Persons and Office of Reparation as part of transitional justice — and singing of the national anthem in Tamil. Both Sirisena and Wickremesinghe had moved visibly towards healing the wounds of war.

If there is something positive to be said about Sirisena it is this: he has respected the verdict of the courts in full — whether it was a reference to them on the term of the President; restoration of Parliament’s suspension; and Wickremesinghe’s reinstatement. 

What happens next? The restoration of constitutional order and Parliament on December 18 does not necessarily mean political stability, especially after the unravelling of the NUG.  The UNP with 103 seats, TNA’s 14, plus JVP’s six gives the UNF a simple majority in a 225-strong legislature. Sirisena’s SLFP rump (less some who may join Wickremsinghe’s cabinet) and Rajapaksa’s SLPP will be shy of 100. The new government will not enjoy a two-thirds majority as the previous NUG did. It is also not clear which party will provide the leader of opposition: TNA as in the previous Parliament or the new SLPP? This cohabitation will lead to friction and political uncertainty when the Rajapaksa-led opposition will fight  tirelessly for early  general election not due till October 2020. In his address to the nation, Rajapaksa said before stepping down that the UNP was avoiding elections, which is true as far as provincial council elections are concerned. The SLPP had given a drubbing to the UNP and the SLFP during the local body elections in the three-cornered test of strength. The government has delayed the provincial elections by 16 months on the grounds that the delimitation process has not been completed. The Election Commission has said these can be held under the previous electoral system; or under the mixed system; or under a new system. It has also said all three elections, including presidential, due in December 2019 can be held in 2020.

Wickremesinghe’s first major test will be the budget. With the demise of the NUG, it is back to more political uncertainty and instability. The Chandrika Kumaratunga’s experiment of keeping out Rajapaksa had a short shelf life. We will soon find out the extent of self-damage Sirisena and Rajapaksa have done to their political fortunes by the failed constitutional coup. In the India-China match in Sri Lanka, the score is deuce.

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