Is Karnataka by-election behind BJP’s cautious approach in Maharashtra?

Vibha Sharma
Tribune News Service
New Delhi, November 13

Could by-elections in Karnataka be one of several reasons behind the Bharatiya Janata Party's cautious approach to the current power tussle in neighbouring Maharashtra? Winning half, or at least six, of the 15 seats on December 5 in what is being called as “mini Assembly elections in Karnataka” is crucial for the BS Yeddiyurappa government, which is hanging on to power by a slim majority. In those terms, Wednesday’s Supreme Court judgment will not just has a bearing on the future of the 15 of 17 disqualified MLAs but also future of the BJP government.

The Supreme Court on Wednesday upheld the order of former Karnataka Assembly Speaker disqualifying 17 MLAs. However, it struck down portion of the Speaker’s order that said that the MLAs would remain disqualified till end of tenure of 15th Karnataka Assembly. Both the sides— Chief Minister Yeddiyurrappa and Leader of Opposition Siddaramaiah—called the verdict their victory.

Currently, the BJP has the support of 106 MLAs, including one independent, in the 225-member Assembly while the opposition, the Janata Dal (Secular) and the Congress, who were outsmarted by Yeddiyurappa have around 100 MLAs—101 if the BSP MLA is also accounted.

Now that these disqualified MLAs can contest, the BJP will be required to win at least six of the 15 seats to remain relevant in the State that witnessed the most dramatic “resort” politics a few months back
So while some may see Wednesday’s Supreme Court verdict as “relief” for Yeddiurappa, the fact is he needs to get the numbers to stay in power. Apparently, there is underlying “anger” against these Congress-JD(S) MLAs among those who sent them to the Assembly in May 2018. This could be a cause of worry for the BJP, which does not have a very encouraging track record so far as by-elections go.

While these rebels are expected to contest as BJP candidates the question is whether people will be as open to them now. This could be one of the reasons why the BJP did not seem acting too aggressive in the neighbouring Maharashtra—a state it cannot afford to lose. Interestingly, while Yediyurappa is supporting these rebels—who, if speculations are to be believed, will be part of the BJP—he is also believed to be facing resistance from within on fielding them, say sources.

It was the resignations of these 17 MLAs that brought down the 14-month JD(S)-Congress government. Elections to two of the 17 constituencies have been withheld due to separate election cases pending in the High Court of Karnataka. With two less, the strength of the Assembly will be down to 223 and the half-way mark 112. The BJP has 106 and it needs six more to reach the point and remain relevant in the 225-member House where after 17 MLAs were disqualified the Assembly strength was reduced to 208.

In the May 2018 elections, the Congress won 11 and the JD(S) three of these 15 constituencies. What goes in the BJP’s favour is the bitterness between its rivals, the Congress and the JD(S).