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Bhartesh Singh Thakur in Chandigarh
With the third Modi wave in the state and the Congress choosing its tallest leaders to contest, elections in Haryana have become a high octane battle.
The Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) has split as former Chief Minister Om Prakash Chautala’s sons — Ajay Chautala and Abhay Chautala — have parted ways. Ajay, who is serving a 10-year jail term in a corruption case, and his sons — Dushyant and Digvijay — have formed Jannayak Janta Party (JJP), which has taken away a chunk of the INLD cadre. Their traditional voter base is expected to be divided among them.
But still the INLD poses a challenge in Sirsa, a reserved seat. Sitting Hisar MP Dushyant is giving a tough fight in Hisar. Both the seats will witness a triangular contest with the Congress and BJP candidates. The polarisation between Jats and non-Jats is stark after the Jat reservation riots in 2016.
Another challenger is Kurukshetra MP Raj Kumar Saini, who broke away from the BJP and formed the Loktanter Suraksha Party (LSP). He is contesting in alliance with the BSP. The alliance will take away substantial votes, at least in Ambala and Kurukshetra constituencies.
BJP: Riding on Modi wave
Till 2014, the BJP had never got more than five seats but riding on the Modi wave, it got seven with 38.84 per cent votes, which was its highest ever vote share in the state. The same factor worked again in the Assembly elections later in October 2014 with 47 seats and 33.24 per cent votes. The party formed its first government on its own.
In 2019 too, Modi is influencing the elections. The Balakot airstrikes in February and designation of Masood Azhar as a global terrorist recently is likely to reap good harvest for the party.
Another factor which is fuelling BJP prospects is polarisation between the Jats and non-Jats, with the latter inclined towards the BJP, as Jat reservation violence scars still hurt. A non-Jat Chief Minister in Manohar Lal Khattar, and largely fair selections in government jobs, is also favouring the BJP.
Congress: Putting up a united face
The party has fielded its tallest leaders with Kumari Selja from Ambala, Ashok Tanwar from Sirsa, Kuldeep Sharma from Karnal, Ajay Yadav from Gurugram and former Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda from Sonepat.
If Hooda loses, it would impact his claim for the Chief Minister’s post in the Assembly elections in September-October later this year. The strategy for the Lok Sabha is to localise the elections to cut the Modi factor and put a united face. The recent bonhomie during the filing of nomination papers, reflects that the Congress has learnt its lessons. However, in the past five years, it has remained mired in internal fights between leaders. In the last Lok Sabha, it got 22.91 per cent vote. It was the worst performance of the party in terms of vote percentage barring 1996 when it got 22.64 per cent and 1977 when it got 17.95 per cent.
In 2014 Assembly elections, the Congress had further slumped to 20.61 per cent and 15 seats out of 90. In both 2004 and 2009, it had, however, won nine out of 10 seats. With the BJP blaming the Congress for the 2016 Jat agitation violence, the task is cut out for the party to get non-Jat votes.
INLD & JJP: Family matters
It is a fight for survival for the INLD. Its target will be to perform better than its breakaway faction the JJP to keep the rest of the cadre with itself. On the one side is Om Prakash Chautala and Abhay Chautala while on the other, there is Ajay, his wife Naina and sons — Dushyant and Digvijay. Dushyant is contesting from Hisar and Digvijay is fighting from Sonepat on JJP tickets. The party has named Digvijay after announcement of the name of Hooda. He recently lost in the Jind Assembly byelection to BJP candidate too. The INLD had got 24.43 per cent vote, and won Sirsa and Hisar in 2014. In 2009, the party had got 15.78 per cent but couldn’t win any seat. The situation was similar in 2009 where it couldn’t send anyone to the Lok Sabha and got 22.43 per cent vote.
LSP-BSP: Alliance against Jats
In the alliance, the BSP is contesting from eight seats and Saini’s LSP on two seats — Bhiwani-Mahendragarh and Sonepat. The BSP has never won a seat from Haryana except in 1998 when Aman Kumar Nagra won the Ambala Lok Sabha seat. That year, the party bagged 7.68 per cent vote. But the best performance of the party was in 2009 when it bagged 15.74 per cent vote share. That year, the BSP candidates were second in Karnal and Gurugram. But in 2014, it slumped to 4.6 per cent votes. Raj Kumar Saini formed the LSP in September, 2018. He had won from the Kurukshetra Lok Sabha seat on BJP ticket. He is a prominent voice against Jat reservation in the state. The strategy is to get non-Jat votes.
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