Gandhi vs Irani

Aditi Tandon in Amethi

Five years ago, Amethi would have unhesitatingly forecast a General Election win in favour of sitting MP Rahul Gandhi. That’s not the case anymore. Nail-biting tension has gripped the electorate of this VVIP segment ever since Gandhi decided to run from another seat in Kerala — the first such move in 15 years since he has represented Amethi in the Lok Sabha.

The locals are anxious, even angry. “Hamara neta humein chhod ke kyun bhaag raha hai (Why is our leader running away from us),”asks Ankit Mishra, who will cast his vote for the first time on May 6. Torn between generational loyalty for the Gandhis and aspirational urges, the 19-year-old says people are increasingly feeling alienated from the Congress and wish Gandhi had been more of a people’s person.

Voices of frustration over Congress president’s Wayanad call resonate throughout Amethi. Barring diehard Congress loyalists, who see a strategic gain in the move, most locals feel Gandhi should not have done this.

Suresh Kumar, a tailor in Salon, one of the five Assembly constituencies of Amethi, says a person confident of winning will never scout for another seat. “He is certainly anxious. Smriti Irani is giving him a tough fight.”

Conscious of the disillusioned voters, the BJP has gone all out to attack Gandhi, calling him a “missing parliamentarian”. Irani, after launching her poll campaign in Amethi on Thursday, is addressing people all over stoking their “betrayed emotions”.

“When your house was on fire, did the missing MP come to douse the flames? For 15 years he could not get one bag of urea offloaded at Gauriganj train station for our farmers. How will he look after an entire segment? I am your sister. I am not Rahul Gandhi. I will be with you in sun and shade,” Irani told a receptive crowd at Gauriganj this week. Gauriganj is the only Assembly constituency among Amethi’s five where the BJP doesn’t have a sitting MLA. In the 2017 Uttar Pradesh polls, the saffron wave had swept Amethi, leaving only Gauriganj to the Samajwadi Party. The Congress was nowhere in the reckoning.

In this poll season too, Amethi’s voters have been awaiting Rahul Gandhi’s arrival. He hasn’t visited Amethi since the Lok Sabha election was announced on March 11 but is expected to file nomination from here on April 10. His sister, Priyanka, visited briefly en route to Ayodhya a while ago but not long enough. Inapproachability of the Gandhis remains an issue and the BJP has further fanned it by launching door-to-door outreach.

Manju Devi from Amethi’s Hajipur village says she has never met Rahul or Priyanka personally but has received a sari from Irani. “Both brother and sister wave from the vehicle. We vote for them because Amethi is known because of the Gandhis. But we also need development,” says Manju Devi, exposing the fault lines in the Gandhis’ traditional hold on Amethi which began with Sanjay Gandhi first winning the seat in 1980.

Despite the Congress occupying Amethi for 39 years and the Gandhis alone holding it for 26 years, the area doesn’t give a casual visitor anything to write home about. The roads are dusty and rutted, educational facilities leave much to be desired, secondary and tertiary health services are dismal and internet connectivity low. People speak of lack of even basic facilities like children’s parks and cinema halls.

The Gandhis brought big-ticket projects like HAL, BHEL and Petroleum University here, but these did not boost the local economy. “HAL has a self-sufficient complex and doesn’t depend on Amethi for services. Same is the case with other projects. Amethi’s economy has remained stagnant and hasn’t benefitted from big projects,” says local Qamar Mehmood.

Amethi city has a community health centre that provides very basic facilities. The nearest hospital is at Gauriganj but locals say it’s ill-equipped too. “For major ailments and emergencies, we have to go to Lucknow or Allahabad,” says a local, Ghanshyam Sharma. Although late PM Indira Gandhi had set up a private hospital in the memory of her son Sanjay Gandhi here, locals say it’s an expensive place and lacks quality specialists.

With development vacuums galore, the BJP is rushing to fill these. Residents say Irani got X-ray and CT scan machines installed at the Gauriganj hospital recently, distributed saris among women and sent sweets and rakhis to locals to mark Diwali and Rakshabandhan. She even sponsored the Kumbh pilgrimage of 20,000 persons besides arranging special screenings of the surgical strikes-based film Uri using mobile theatres across Amethi.

As things stand, even saffron ranks are not absolutely sure of the outcome in Amethi. Their anxieties surface all too often, as Irani speaks of the Congress and Pakistan in the same breath in her rallies. She has also been attacking the Congress manifesto as anti-national for promising to abolish sedition. “Rahul Gandhi is taking the help of the Muslim League in Kerala. Will you vote for forces that weaken the nation or strengthen it?” she asks the crowds during a rally, as the BJP gives steam to its poll slogans — “BJP ko jitaana hai, Pakistan ko sabak sikhaana hai”; “May 23 ko Amethi kamal ka button dabaayegi aur vikas ki Diwali manaayegi.”

Though a vast section of the voters here still seems committed to the Gandhis, the BJP’s slogans are beginning to find an audience. Manoj Saini, a local jeweller, says, “In Salon, we have been demanding a rail line for decades. We still have not got one. Smriti Irani has kept returning to Amethi despite losing the 2014 elections. She has our sympathy.” Interestingly, Gandhi’s vote share in Amethi has dwindled of late. When he first contested here in 2004, he polled 68.18 per cent of votes as against his nearest BSP rival, who got 16.85 per cent. Gandhi’s vote share in 2009 was 71.78 per cent as against the BSP’s 14.54 per cent. It fell drastically by 25 per cent, settling at 46.71 per cent in 2014 as against Irani’s 34.38 per cent.

Locals say Gandhi’s anxieties are natural. “In 2014, Smriti Irani was new to Amethi, yet, she gave him a tough fight. This time she is better prepared. She has visited Amethi around 50 times since 2014. Rahul, on the contrary, came about a dozen times,” notes Shakuntala Devi of Amethi.

That said, many locals still vouch for the Gandhi family. “No one can defeat Rahul here. This is his home, his family,” says Ram Prakash Yadav, an old timer. As he speaks from an emotional connect with the family, a disgruntled farmer standing nearby says, “Nothing can be predicted this time.”

Rahul Gandhi might still win the segment riding the latent sentiment of local loyalty. However, the fact that the BJP has shattered the legendary predictability of Amethi results should worry him.

What old timers say

"Amethi’s connect with the Congress goes back to Sanjay Gandhi’s days when he chose the segment and decided to develop it. It was just dry land then. Youth Congress leaders from across India did shram daan in Amethi and built roads. Whatever you see today is the contribution of Gandhis. No one can defeat Rahul here. This is his home. The BSP and the AAP have not put up candidates this time. Rahul Gandhi’s victory margins will soar".— RAM MURTI SHUKLA, Sanjay Gandhi's election agent in 1980

"Rahul Gandhi would not have chosen a second seat had he been sure of his win in Amethi. His uncle and father developed Amethi a lot, but he remains aloof. Smriti Irani has established a connect with the locals by visiting more often than Rahul despite not being an elected MP. People have started questioning dynastic politics. You can see Amethi for yourself and draw a conclusion. Should a VIP segment look like what Amethi does?"— JAMNA PRASAD MISHR, oldest BJP leader in Amethi

WHAT WORKS FOR RAHUL GANDHI 

• Since 1967 when Amethi LS segment was formed, Congress has won all but two elections here and has held the segment for 48 years. The only time it did not win was post-Emergency in 1977 and then in 1998 when local prince Sanjay Singh (now a Congress Rajya Sabha MP) defeated Congressman Satish Sharma. A year later, Sonia Gandhi wrested back the segment from the BJP.
• Gandhi family representatives starting with Sanjay Gandhi, Rajiv Gandhi, Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi have held the seat for 31 years.
• Big-ticket projects, including HAL and BHEL, have been have come here. The Congress also established a IIIT and a mega food park, which locals blame the BJP for cancelling.
• Old loyalty for the Gandhi family and a sense that Amethi owes its VVIP status to the Gandhis.

WHAT GOES AGAINST HIM

• Less visibility in the segment as compared to Smriti Irani who, locals say, has visited much more than Gandhi despite being defeated. The fact that Gandhi has chosen one more seat has confused the locals.
• The BJP’s expanding organisational base in Amethi. In 2017 state polls, it won four of the five Assembly segments in Amethi LS; SP won one.
• Lack of facilities like health, roads, power supply (barring Amethi proper, the area reports 8-hour power cut during peak summers), over- and under-bridges at railway crossings leave much to be desired.