Decoding Imran Khan’s balancing act

MK Bhadrakumar
Former Ambassador

MISSING the wood for the trees can give wrong notions, especially when the endgame is about to begin in the India-Pakistan impasse. Admittedly, pro-Khalistan activist Gopal Singh Chawla got several photo-ops during the Kartarpur Corridor ceremony in Pakistan on November 28. Chawla has a photogenic face alright, but he is nowhere near handsome as Navjot Singh Sidhu. He posted their photo on his Facebook page. Who wouldn't want to pose with a rockstar? 

But some Indians have gone tizzy. These are moments when Indians must be capable of self-confidence. After all, it was only last year that Prime Minister Modi had brought up Pakistani atrocities on people of Balochistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir in his Independence Day speech, which elated Baluchi nationalists to no end. Brahumdagh Bugti, president of the Baloch Republican Party, breezed past Facebook to record a full-fledged video statement to thank our PM and to exhort the international community to follow Modi's footfalls. At the end of the day, the good part is that Chawla could not mar the moment. 

Imran’s gamechanging ‘googly’

There was an outpouring of sentiments of goodwill at the groundbreaking ceremony in Kartarpur. It became difficult to do nitpicking on the brilliant 'googly' by PM Imran Khan, which may prove a game-changer. To carry forward the metaphor, while there's still a clutch of tail-enders left, the game is phenomenally changing. If the shift still doesn't register in the Indian mind — that the period between now and April is going to be crucial for regional security — the only way to dispel doubt will be by asking US President Trump why he did that somersault and addressed an appeal to Imran Khan in writing, seeking help so soon after firing a vituperative tweet condemning Pakistan's betrayal of friendship. If there is still any lingering doubt, please go through the interview by Imran Khan with the Washington Post, on December 6, within a week of receiving Trump's letter. 'Taliban Khan' underscored in the interview that the US should not retrench from Afghanistan — and, importantly, that Taliban too desire it. Imran Khan dumped any misconceptions that he is waging a crusade against American imperialism. He seeks a full-bodied relationship with the US such as Pakistan has with China. 

At the fag-end of the interview, Imran Khan slipped in, "We also want something done about the bombers of Mumbai. I have asked our government to find out the status of the case. Resolving that case is in our interest because it was an act of terrorism. I have opened a visa-free peace corridor with India called Kartarpur. Let us hope that after the (Indian) election is over, we can again resume talks with India." These remarks follow Imran Khan's tantalising statement recently in an interview with visiting Indian journalists that there have been two or three solutions to the Kashmir issue that have been in discussions — although it is "too early to talk about them." 

Suffice to say, Sidhu was prescient when he said, "Kartarpur is a corridor to infinite possibilities." Imran Khan is not in a hurry because he estimates that the Modi government is unwilling or unprepared (or both) to follow up on the unexpected cracking sound of the ice on the frozen lake in the middle of winter. It is too much to expect the ruling elite to get used to the slowly cracking sound effect, but they will, inevitably, as time passes. 

In an era of coalition politics

Besides, Pakistan has always been astute in making assessments about Indian electoral politics and at the very minimum would know that in any whichever way the 2019 poll verdict turns out, coalition politics is raring to reappear on the centre-stage in Delhi. 

This is where Kartarpur Sahib augurs a paradigm shift. The past history of our two main parties taking turns to exploit tensions with Pakistan for vote consolidation may be ending. It is even possible to say that the law of diminishing returns may be at work. This was quite evident on November 28 when the BJP and the Congress vied with each other to hog the limelight at the ceremony in Pakistan and almost elbowed out the Shiromani Akali Dal, which is a legitimate stakeholder too. The point is, in the incoming era of coalitions in Indian politics, paradoxically enough, it may be expedient for the balancing coalitions to identify with initiatives leading to a thaw in India-Pakistan tensions. 

The Afghan angle

Then, there are the other quotients, the principal one being the Afghan situation. Clearly, the Trump administration is desperate to end the war. A Chinese commentary neatly summed up last week: "It is urgent Washington reconcile with the Afghan Taliban so that US forces can withdraw from Afghanistan in a decent way with a regime acceptable, if not necessarily favorable, to the US… Washington has thus realized that without the help of Islamabad, any effort to end the war is futile… All signs indicate that the US is losing its dominance in the Afghan peace process… And the US does not have many chips left to bargain with the Afghan Taliban… However, the Pakistani military doesn't think highly of the letter [from Trump] and takes it as another pressuring strategy. The US letter didn't mention whether the US is preparing to resume its assistance to Pakistan as a reward for Pakistan's efforts. Whether it can win Pakistan's trust remains questionable." 

This is where Imran Khan's interview with the Washington Post figures. The salience of the interview lies in Pakistan exploring what is there in it for helping the US bail out. Between now and April, Pakistan is prioritising the Afghan endgame. And that also is when the Modi government will have entered the lame duck phase.