Congress on course to go into revival mode

Neerja Chowdhury
Senior political commentator

RAHUL Gandhi faces a ‘long term versus short run’ dilemma, which has often dogged political leaders. Should he focus only on defeating Narendra Modi in 2019, which would mean giving primacy to alliances, and may entail more of ‘give’ than of ‘take’, in the interest of the larger goal? Or should he concentrate on reviving the Congress at the grassroots?

A judicious mix of both is easier said than done. As the Congress chief found out in Uttar Pradesh, when the party was left out of the SP-BSP alliance, barring the seats of Amethi and Rae Bareli. Sensing the possibility of revival after its win in three states, it had sought 20 seats, but the SP-BSP was willing to give it no more than eight. Akhilesh Yadav and Mayawati announced their pact unilaterally, taking 38 seats each, and leaving two for the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD). That two is expected to be increased to four, under a new formula that two SP leaders would fight under the RLD banner.

Rahul Gandhi’s decision to bring Priyanka Gandhi Vadra into active politics at this stage shows that the Congress now wants to go into a revival mode, while striking alliances in states, wherever possible.

It is not as if there is a national alliance against the Modi-led NDA in the offing, or being pursued seriously. Chandrababu Naidu flagged the idea, but he seems to have given up on it. K Chandrashekhar Rao has talked about forging a non-Congress, non-BJP ‘federal front’, but it is really geared to weaken the Congress in the opposition space.

There is an acceptance that a national mahagathbandhan is possible only after the elections, if the numbers are there to favour its creation. For now, it is nothing but a photo-op, of the kind seen in Bengaluru when HD Kumaraswamy took over as Chief Minister, or more recently in Kolkata, when 20 parties shared the stage with Mamata Banerjee at a rally organised by the Trinamool Congress.

It is possible for opposition leaders to address rallies together in different parts of the country to create a mahaul (environment) against Modi and the BJP that would help all of them in their individual fiefdoms. But to fashion a country-wide alliance, working out a division of seats among them, is an impossible task.

An alliance without a leader is meaningless and the question of leadership cannot be settled before the elections. The Congress is too weak at the moment for its leader to be accepted by all regional satraps, even though, interestingly enough, it is the southern chieftains — MK Stalin, Chandrababu Naidu and HD Kumaraswamy — who have projected Rahul Gandhi for the PM’s chair. 

This, however, is not the case with Mayawati or Mamata Banerjee. Mamata’s mega rally positioned her as a possible prime ministerial candidate, and it was calculated to fuel  regional sentiment in her favour to enable her to consolidate her hold on West Bengal. Mayawati talked about the desirability of the next Prime Minister being from Uttar Pradesh, if nothing else, to bring more Dalits to her side.

It is gathbandhans at the state level which are more critical and could pose a problem for the BJP. The Congress has already tied up with the NCP in Maharashtra, giving sleepless nights to the BJP, given the Shiv Sena’s 

hostility towards it.

In Karnataka, the Congress and the JD(S) are partners in the government and are expected to sew up an alliance for the Lok Sabha polls, even though the clouds over the beleaguered Kumaraswamy dispensation have not yet lifted. In Jharkhand, the Congress has an alliance already in the works with the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) and smaller parties. So is the case in Bihar, with the RJD, RLSP and others.

It is UP that has proved to be tricky, and it is here that the mother of all battles is going to be fought. Hence Priyanka Gandhi Vadra. She has been given the charge of eastern UP, is expected to take on Modi in his territory, and try and shift the national narrative in the Congress’ favour.

If she clicks, it is not inconceivable that Mayawati and Akhilesh Yadav may decide to fashion an ‘informal understanding’ with the Congress on a number of seats so that it can become a win-win situation for both. Many suspect that Mayawati was trying to play hardball in the first place in the hope that the Congress would leave seats for it in states outside UP — in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Maharashtra and Punjab — which would help her acquire a national profile. 

The Congress may damage the BJP’s prospects on some seats with upper-caste concentrations. Even in 2014, it had got over one lakh votes in 11 Lok Sabha constituencies, most of them in east UP. However, without an ‘understanding’, it would also hurt the SP-BSP gathbandhan (triangular contests would confuse the minorities), which could help the BJP. And yet the Congress has decided on a strategy to rebuild its organisation and maximise its numbers to be able to wield post-poll clout. 

Priyanka’s mission goes beyond 2019, and Rahul Gandhi made this clear — that he had brought her, and Jyotirditya Scindia, to look after UP not just for two months. The Congress, it goes without saying, cannot become a national player without winning back UP.

Her entry, if she evokes a response, is also likely to redefine the contours of the Congress’ relationship with the regional parties in the weeks to come.

After its victory in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, people are undoubtedly looking at India’s grand old party with new eyes and the Congress senses this subtle change of mood.

The trouble is that while the Congress has to revive itself to become a player again, any signs of its revival will trigger off insecurities in the regional parties, with whom it has to align to be able to defeat the BJP.