Dec 11 results to have impact in HP too

KS Tomar

The outcome of Assembly elections in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, Chhattisgarh and Mizoram could have an impact (positive or negative) on a small state like Himachal Pradesh as well, as it will set the tone for the 2019 parliamentary poll.

Due to the Modi wave in 2013, the BJP had won all four Lok Sabha seats in the state and it would be a big challenge for the party to retain these seats, especially when any type of wave may be non-existent.

The BJP will also face the anti-incumbency of the Modi government at the Centre, which may be compounded by the high expectations of people vis a vis the fulfilment of tall promises made in the manifesto to woo the electorate to win the Assembly elections in 2017.

The results of Assembly elections on December 11 (counting day) will have a definite bearing on the psyche of cadres and the leaders of the ruling party and the main Opposition in all states, including HP.

At this juncture, two scenarios can emerge. First, BJP’s victory in MP and Chhattisgarh may not cause substantial damage to the ruling party and hence it will breathe easy. But if it loses two big states like Rajasthan and MP, then it will have a positive impact on the possible emergence of the ‘Mahagathbandhan’ for the 2019 elections. The chances of the BJP in Telangana seem remote.

If the Congress wins Rajasthan and MP, then it will infuse a new life in the leadership of AICC president Rahul Gandhi. It will also enhance the bargaining power of the Congress. Mayawati’s BSP may be pushed to the corner in UP and other northern states thereby brightening the prospects of the inclusion of the Congress in the ‘Mahagathbandhan’. The Congress will be able to position itself to be a part of the new alliance. The demoralised and defeatist mentality of the Congress leaders and cadres will be rejuvenated to take on the BJP. It will also change the tone of media, especially some TV channels and newspapers, which are busy in slamming the Opposition and questioning the capabilities and leadership qualities of Rahul Gandhi to combat the established leadership of Modi. State-level tie-ups will become a reality and flexibility may override the whims and fancies of the top leaders of regional parties in the country.

Analysts opine that notwithstanding the fact that several leaders of the regional parties are at loggerheads and even nurture hostility as well as enmity, the compulsion of their survival will bring them at common platform to face the BJP, which is well-equipped with high resources and has the backing of the RSS besides the onslaught of Modi and Amit Shah.

The BJP has cleverly left it to Vasundhara Raje, Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Raman Singh to retain power, whereas Modi and Shah have been kept out of the firing line in case the party faces defeat in these three states. The failure of CMs to live up to the expectations of voters would be held responsible for any type of reverses. The Assembly elections are primarily being fought on state issues, though Central BJP and Congress leaders are accusing each other of harping on non-issues to divert the attention of the electorate from burning problems. 

The Himachal BJP and its government would have to work hard to deliver as per the expectations of the PM and national party president in the 2019 elections. The new leadership of the BJP in HP would be on test, as the state government has been given full financial assistance by the PM during the past 10 months. The CM is on an announcement spree in all Assembly segments. Jai Ram Thakur will be in an advantageous position if the BJP fares well in Assembly elections, but he may face a united and re-energised Congress, if results go against the ruling party. The CM has got full backing of the organisation and its president Satpal Satti will also face a litmus test in the Lok Sabha elections. The RSS will leave no stone unturned in defeating the Congress, which was witnessed during the state Assembly elections in November 2017. 

A cursory look at the preparedness of the BJP shows that it has started the process in advance to energise party cadres. It is busy organising conferences of ‘Panna Pramukhs’ in every Lok Sabha constituency. Amit Shah was expected in the Mandi conference on November 28, but he could not spare time. Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh presided over the ‘Panna Samelan’ in Mandi and advised workers to concentrate on the 2019 elections. The BJP will organise ‘Panna Pramukh Samelan’ in other three LS constituencies prior to the parliamentary poll. The Chief Minister has announced to celebrate one-year’s achievements of his government in Dharamsala during the last week of this month and expects Modi and Shah to attend the function, which will politically benefit him besides setting the tone and tenor for the crucial 2019 poll. 

(Writer is a senior journalist. Views are personal)