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Vibha Sharma in New Delhi
The 2019 battle is expected to be a tough fight for the Bharatiya Janata Party, tougher than 2014. As a Prime Minister, Narendra Modi was an untested entity then, now he is not. This is both strength as well as weakness of the saffron party, seeking second consecutive term at the Centre. It’s not going to be an easy ride for the BJP but with its trademark strategy, a killer instinct, a sizable cache of allies, a nationalist narrative and its ideological fountainhead RSS firmly by its side, the party seems to be in a good place, especially after the Pulwama terror attack and the following Balakot air strikes. The arrest of the absconding Nirav Modi in the UK is another ace up its sleeve.
Strangely, the Congress has chosen to ignore BJP’s controversial decisions — demonetisation, for instance — and has persisted in labelling Modi a ‘chor’. The Congress’ narrative on joblessness also doesn’t seem to be making an impact for lack of real solutions. Besides, its ‘chowkidar chor hai’ jibe has given the BJP a good idea to replace Modi’s famous ‘chaiwala’ campaign of 2014. The BJP believes it has a winner in the ‘main bhi chowkidar’ campaign. The party is also banking on India’s better international position, young voters and their disdain for “dynastic politics and sense of entitlement” embodied by the Gandhis.
Real issues
The question is, has the BJP managed to convince farmers with the PM-Kisan scheme, middle class with budget sops, upper castes with reservation and youth regarding their future? As much as the BJP may like to deny, its traditional voters are unhappy. To avoid upsetting liberals and fence-sitters, the RSS has asked its affiliate VHP to keep key poll plank Ram Mandir on the back burner. And to avoid upsetting upper castes any further, it has also decided to go slow on its Dalit outreach.
TINA factor
The inability of the Opposition to join hands seems to be the BJP’s biggest strength. Senior BJP leader Arun Jaitley sees the 2019 contest as the one between “a leader in whose hand the country is developing, is secure, and who can be trusted” and “multiple leaders, each trying to outwit the other”. “They can only promise a temporary government if we go by the past precedents. One can be certain of chaos. The choice is clear — it is either Modi or chaos,” he said. The Opposition’s inability to find a common ground despite several attempts, rallies and optics is the biggest propeller of the there-is-no-alternative (TINA) theory.
In 2014, the BJP-led NDA was a conglomerate of around 29 parties; this time it has 41 parties, brought together by the Modi-Shah duo ignoring past insults, ceding space and seats, and putting its traditional issues on the back burner to enhance the NDA’s chances. It has given the NDA a psychological edge at a time when Mahagathbandhan is nothing but a dream. It has allies in Bihar, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, Kerala and Northeast, while the Congress continues to live in a time-wrap, haggling on seats and petty issues.
To win friends, the BJP has not only sacrificed seats and issues but also ignored insults heaped on Modi. It is contesting mere five seats in Tamil Nadu and 17 in Bihar, the state where it won 22 seats on its own in 2014. It is on good terms with YSR Congress chief Jagan Mohan Reddy in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana Rashtra Samiti supremo K Chandrasekhar Rao, increasing its post-poll prospects.
The BJP is also taking care not to upset the vote banks of allies and has thus put on hold the controversial poll planks like Article 370, Uniform Civil Code and the Citizenship Amendment Bill, though party leaders say one should wait for the ‘sankalp patra’— the 2019 manifesto — before “jumping to any conclusions”. The Hindutva issue is being kept alive through poster boys like Yogi Adityanath, Vinay Katiyar, Keshav Prasad Maurya, but in order to appear inclusive and as non-controversial as possible, the resolution of the Ram Mandir issue has been left to mediation and the court.
Congress’ shortcomings
The onus of stitching alliances rests on the larger partner, which the Congress has failed to demonstrate. The multiple allies in the NDA camp are helping the BJP’s narrative of its wider acceptability and the “failure of the Congress to manage a coalition, its lack of pragmatism, and the persistence to behave as the big brother even when it has nothing in hand”. Meanwhile, the BJP also hopes to gain from this “strange unwillingness” within the Congress to acknowledge good work done during the UPA regimes. It’s strange that the Congress is choosing not to highlight the feats achieved during the tenure of Manmohan Singh. That would have been a better campaign against the BJP, say observers.
Multi-phased elections
The spread out polls suits the BJP well. The 162 seats in three crucial states — Uttar Pradesh (80), Bihar (40) and West Bengal (42) — will see polling on all seven days and Madhya Pradesh (29), Odisha (21), Maharashtra (48) and Jharkhand (14) on four days. It gives star campaigner Modi to address a rally in one part even while elections are on in the other. It works well for a cadre-based party, and the BJP will have an edge on this count as well.
Aditi Tandon in New Delhi
It has taken less than a month for the Congress-led opposition’s dream of a pan India anti-BJP alliance to turn sour. Only on February 13, the eve of the Pulwama terror attack, opposition stalwarts had announced plans to form a pre-poll coalition against the ruling BJP and said they would draft a common minimum programme to delineate their agenda against Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
The 17th Lok Sabha elections begin on April 11 but the draft CMP is nowhere to be seen. The plan of a Mahagathbandhan against the BJP in major states has fallen by the wayside, with the BSP and the SP announcing unilateral pacts minus the Congress in Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Uttarakhand and the Trinamool Congress declaring all 42 candidates in Bengal.
Karnataka and Bihar alliances were also finalised recently following tension over seat-sharing between the Congress and regional players — the RJD in Bihar and the JD(S) in Karnataka. In Delhi, Punjab and Haryana, the potential Congress-AAP understanding is not happening, despite opposition titans like TMC chief Mamata Banerjee and NCP president Sharad Pawar urging the Congress to come around.
UPA-III: Now a post-poll dream
Souring of the opposition alliance began with the 2018 election cycle in Rajasthan, MP and Chhattisgarh where the Congress failed to reach a pre-poll understanding with the BSP and the SP. Chiefs of both parties Mayawati and Akhilesh Yadav slammed the Congress for its arrogance and snubbed it in UP by going alone in the LS elections. They left only two Gandhi family seats for the grand old party, riling it into a counter-offensive.
In Delhi and Bengal, too, pre-poll pacts failed with the Congress president Rahul Gandhi citing unwillingness of state units to ally with AAP in Delhi and the TMC in Bengal. Mamata Banerjee, TDP chief Chandrababu Naidu and Pawar tried till mid-March to persuade the Congress to give and take but the Congress had by then shifted its stance. This shift in Congress plan started in January after the BSP and SP announced the UP alliance. It became pronounced after the Pulwama terror attack and IAF strikes in Pakistan which bumped BJP’s pre-election moods tilting the national narrative towards nationalism — an idea the BJP is aggressively playing now.
This explained the recent Congress moves — the launch of Priyanka Gandhi Vadra as general secretary UP east; announcement of UP candidates, including for Badaun, a seat Akhilesh Yadav’s cousin Dharmendra Yadav represents in the Lok Sabha; Priyanka’s meeting with Dalit leader Chandrashekhar Azad of Bhim Army to Mayawati’s ire; Delhi Congress chief Sheila Dikshit’s snub to AAP alliance and the Bengal Congress’ statement favouring a pact with the Left over the TMC.
On Congress-led UPA side, currently are 15 parties — the NCP and Swabhimani Paksha (Maharashtra); JD(S) (Karnataka); NC (J&K); DMK (Tamil Nadu); RJD, Loktantrik Janata Dal, Hindustan Awam Party and RLSP (Bihar); JMM, RJD and JVM (Jharkhand), IUML and Kerala Congress (Kerala) and AIUDF in Assam. The Left has not been accommodated in opposition alliances in Bihar or Jharkhand and talks in Bengal are on a shaky ground.
Arrogance or strategy?
Notwithstanding the opposition pressure to give in to dominant regional players, the Congress has made up its mind to ensure that its electoral relevance is not sacrificed at the altar of anti-BJP coalitions. “We respect the BSP and SP’s decision in UP but we also have an obligation to our people,” Congress media head Randeep Surjewala says on the breakdown of UP alliance as the Congress plans to contest majority of the 80 seats there.
“Our first priority is to keep the cadre alive and strike a balance between party prospects in 2019 and our future in terms of relevance. Besides, post-poll alliance possibilities are always open,” Congress spokesperson and member, AICC publicity committee for LS polls Jaiveer Shergill says. The grand old party appears progressively convinced that the best way forward is to keep afloat for a longer haul rather than commit political suicide for an immediate expediency.
Congress veteran and former Law Minister Ashwani Kumar reasons, “Forging of alliances is a critical part of the winning strategy considering the arithmetic of the poll. It is self-evident that the Congress needs to avoid split in the anti-BJP vote. At the same time, it needs to ensure that its political presence in various states does not shrink further.” Initial signals from the opposition camp are not happy as Sharad Pawar and Mayawati have both pulled out of the LS fray signalling low confidence. Both have, however, kept the post-poll options open.
The strategy
Congress veterans are working overtime to prevent the BJP from hijacking the nationalistic narrative dominating electorate’s mindscapes post-Pulwama and IAF strikes in Pakistan.
A Congress Working Committee resolution recently expressed solidarity with the armed forces and accused PM Modi of exploiting national security to deflect attention from his failures on the governance front. The Congress’ plan is to pull the attention back on the BJP’s “failures on jobs, agriculture, women’s safety, national security and economy.”
Accordingly, the March 12 CWC resolution said, “The Congress party expresses its strong disappointment that the Prime Minister is cynically exploiting the issue of national security, on which we are all united, to divert attention from his colossal failures, bogus claims and persistent falsehoods.”
The other Congress plank against the BJP is corruption, with the party determined to hammer Rahul Gandhi’s “chowkidar chor hai” line despite BJP’s massive counters. The PM recently prefixed “chowkidar” to his Twitter name so did all the ministers. PM even addressed watchmen across the country launching #Mai Bhi Chowkidar Twitter movement which Congress media strategists are challenging with #BJP Ke Sab Chowkidar Chor Hain hashtag.
Some anti-BJP slogans the Congress will use are “Pehle lade the goron se; ab ladenge choron se”; and “Naa jawaanon ki, na kisaanon ki, BJP hai baeimanoon ki.”
The golden handshakes
Mukesh Ranjan in New Delhi
With the announcement of dates for elections to the 17th Lok Sabha, the stage is set for the country to choose its next government. By any standard Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal, which together have 177 Parliamentary constituencies, are certain to emerge as the key battleground in becoming a decider. Incidentally, this time around the ruling BJP-led NDA, so far, appears to be essentially pitched against non-Congress regional parties — in UP (SP-BSP combine), in Bihar (RJD-led alliance), in Jharkhand (scattered opposition) and in West Bengal (direct fight against the formidable TMC).
The NDA had a rich haul of 116 Lok Sabha seats in these states in the 2014 elections. But unlike 2014, the BJP doesn’t have the advantage of a fragmented opposition in these states this time. In the politically crucial state of UP, which sends the maximum 80 MPs, political churning appears to have changed the scenario. This time, the BJP is seemingly up against double anti-incumbency, against the Centre as well as the state government. Furthermore, the party will be up against the combined might of the SP and the BSP even while the Congress, besides the breakaway faction of the SP headed by Shivpal Singh Yadav, are toiling hard to make the contest multi-cornered.
And, here lies a scant chance for the BJP, as both the SP and the BSP, which have historically been contesting on all 80 seats, are now reduced to contest only 37 and 38 seats each respectively. Keen observers of UP politics feel that the left out prospective candidates of the two parties as a result of alliance may either go in hibernation or opt for a ticket either from the Congress or Shivpal’s outfit. The emerging scenario may negate a consolidation of minority vote base in the state, which the two allies SP-BSP are looking for, as in 2014 and 2017 it was the division of Muslim votes that helped the BJP in getting a complete sweep, they said.
In Bihar (40 seats), the BJP in alliance with the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) and the Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP) had a runaway success in 2014, bagging 31 out of the 40 Lok Sabha seats. This time, with the BJP, JD (U) and the LJP bracing up to battle it out against the RJD-Congress combine, the state is staring at a largely bipolar contest.
Bihar too has emerged a tri-polar state politically, where the two poles — BJP and RJD — are fixed ones and are anti-thesis of each other. The third pole JD(U) is an oscillating force and its tilt to either of the sides has been making differences in the electoral politics of Bihar. In neighbouring Jharkhand (14 seats) too with JD(U) to BJP’s side and Sudesh Mahato-led All Jharkhand Student Union (AJSU) party in the NDA fold, very little has changed in the state since the 2014 elections and then BJP is a ruling party there. Opposition ranks, including Jhakhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) and the Congress, are yet to decide on seat sharing. The BJP has poured maximum energy in West Bengal where it bagged just two Lok Sabha seats last time. It is emerging as a key challenger to the ruling TMC in the state, which had won 34 of the 42 constituencies.
UTTAR PRADESH
Vote share (2014): BJP 42.3%, SP 22.2%, Cong 7.5% and Apna Dal 1%
Seats won (2014): BJP 71, SP 5, Cong 2 and Apna Dal 2 (Total: 80)
Caste break-up: OBCs 40%, Dalits 20.8%, Muslims 19% and Upper Caste 23%
BIHAR
Vote share (2014): BJP 29.4%, RJD 20.1%, JD(U) 15.8 %, LJP 8.4%, Cong 6.4%, RLSP 3% and NCP 1.3%
Seats won (2014): BJP 22, LJP 6, RJD 4, RLSP 3, JD(U) 2, Cong 2 and NCP 1 (Total: 40)
Caste break-up: OBCs 51%, Dalits 16%, Muslims 16.9%, Upper Caste 17% and STs 1.3%
JHARKHAND
Vote share (2014): BJP 40.7%, INC 13.5%, Jharkhand Vikash Party 12.3%, JMM 9.4%, AJSU 3.8% and Others 20.3%
Seats won (2014): BJP 12 and JMM 2 (Total: 14)
Caste break-up: STs 28%, SCs 12%, OBCs 36%, Muslims 14.5% and Upper Caste 10.5%
WEST BENGAL
Vote share (2014): TMC 39.05%, CPI(M) 29.71%, BJP 16.8% and Cong 9.58%
Seats won (2014): TMC 34, Cong 4, CPI(M) 3 and BJP 2 (Total: 43)
Caste break-up: Upper Caste 20%, OBCs 23%, SCs 24%, STs 6% and Muslims 27%
KV Prasad in New Delhi
Barring Kerala, the electoral landscape across the Vindhyas is a battle between regional parties and their leaders with the two national parties — the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party and the Congress — hitching on to the regional outfits bandwagon in some states or being a marginal player in others. In Andhra Pradesh, the ruling Telugu Desam Party faces anti-incumbency that can cast a shadow in the Assembly elections being held along with those to the Lok Sabha. For the first time, the state will vote separately after bifurcation in 2014. After its alliance with the Congress in the neighbouring Telengana last December came a cropper, the TDP is going alone in the hope that Pawan Kalayan’s nascent Janasena Party does not play the spoiler in the face of stiff challenge mounted by the Yuvajana Sramika Ryuthu Congress Party led by Jagan Reddy, son of former Congress CM YS Rajasekhar Reddy. Young Jagan’s padayatra has stirred the political pot in Andhra Pradesh. The BJP is in contest, but has little presence to make a major impact.
After recording a three-fourth majority in the Assembly elections barely four months ago, the Telengana Rashtra Samiti is way ahead in the state with the TDP and the Congress still licking their wounds after being severely mauled in those elections. The BJP and the AIMIM can hope to retain its presence in the outgoing House.
With both the regional Dravidian parties — the AIADMK and the DMK — stitching up formidable alliances with other regional outfits, big and small. The BJP is aligned with the former while the Congress with the DMK. This will be the first time both Dravidian parties will contest without the towering presence of its leaders J Jayalalithaa and M Karunanidhi, respectively. The challenge for better established MK Stalin is to lead the charge for the DMK-led Front against the ruling AIADMK, currently under the dual leadership of Chief Minsiter K Palaniswami and his deputy O Paaneerselvam with the ‘blessings’ of the BJP. Karnataka, the only state in south India where the BJP is strong, the party is keen to avenge the snub by the regional Janata Dal (Secular) that allied with the Congress to deny BS Yeddyurappa another shot at government formation last May. Amid reports of differences, the Congress and the JD(S) arrived at a settlement with the Congress contesting 20 seats and rest for the partner.
Kerala, the most-literate state in the country, is also politically very conscious with a small swing in vote sharing altering the poll fortunes of contestants. Traditionally, the voters alternate between the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front and the Congress-led United Democratic Front both during the Assembly and the Lok Sabha. The LDF is in government. In the current Lok Sabha, the BJP technically has a member from the state in Richard Hay (Nominated) and it hopes to open an account in the new Lok Sabha through its former state chief Kummanam Rajasekaran, who resigned as Mizoram Governor and is contesting from Thiruvananthapuram, a seat held by Shashi Tharoor. The BJP optimism is after it struck maiden success in May 2016 Assembly elections when former Union Minister O Rajagopal won Nemom constituency that is part of the Thiruvananthapuram district.
Andhra Pradesh (25)
Essentially a contest between two regional parties — Telugu Desam and Yuvjana Sramika Ryuthu Congress party formed by son of former Andhra and Congress CM YS Rajasekhara Reddy. Popular filmstar Janasena Party is expected to be the spoiler for the TDP. The Bharatiya Janata Party and the Congress — are overshadowed.
Telengana (17)
The ruling Telengana Rashtra Samiti is the leader with a tie-up with the All-India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM). The TDP and the Congress are struggling to make their presence felt while the BJP hopes to continue its flag flying.
Tamil Nadu (39) & Puducherry (1)
A keen tussle is on with the ruling AIADMK-led Front having eight parties, including the BJP, while the opposition DMK-led Front has nine constituents, including the Congress. The UT of Puducherry goes to poll with the state.
Karnataka (28)
The battle from this state the BJP breached across the Vindhyas remains interesting with the ruling Janata Dal (Secular)-Congress coalition seeking to thwart the onward march of the BJP just as it stumped the latter in the Assembly polls last May.
Kerala(20)
In this largely bi-polar politically conscious state, the ruling CPI (M)-led Left Front is bracing to face a tough battle from the opposition Congress-Led United Democratic Front. The BJP, tied up with the local Bharat Dharam Jana Sena and Kerala Congress (Thomas), hopes to wrest the Thiruvananthapuram seat.
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