After a late start, extended winter to continue till Feb-end

Vibha Sharma
Tribune News Service
New Delhi, February 17

After a late start, the winter season is overstaying this year and weather is expected to remain cool for some more days, at least till the end of February.

After seven western disturbances this January, an unusual figure by all accounts as per experts, and four more in ongoing month till date, two more back-to-back western disturbances are expected to bring widespread rains and snow to plains and hills of the northwest over the next five days.

Normally, the western disturbances start moving towards higher latitudes by January-end, but not this year.

Official forecaster IMD, which in the beginning of the season had predicted warmer winters (“below normal cold wave in cold wave zone”) this year, has linked long and penetrating chill during January to cold blasts from the Arctic region—the outcome of disruption of polar vortex.

Meteorologists say cold from the Arctic spilled southwards into Europe and further pushed weather systems, including WDs, southwards towards north India.

The same is corroborated by independent weather expert Mahesh Palawat who says the systems transmitted cold from south Europe to north India.

The event that led to the freeze in Europe may be over but remnants of chill continue to affect the systems he says.

“At least seven western disturbances affected January and four in February. After these two upcoming successive western disturbances, a couple of more are likely before the month-ends though with not as much intensity.

“Among these two successive western disturbances, second one is expected to be more intense with after-effects lingering till around February 23/24. The weather will be cooler in plains but not as much. Because of higher temperatures now the instant cooling will not be there,” he says.

Meanwhile, according to the IMD’s official statement today, under the influence of the first western disturbance, an induced cyclonic circulation will form tomorrow over west Rajasthan and neighbourhood.

Then in association with the second system, there will be high moisture incursion from the Arabian Sea over northwest, specifically over Western Himalayan Region (WHR) on February 20 and 21.

Strong wind convergence and confluence at lower levels over plains will also take place during the period.

Fairly widespread to widespread rain/snow will occur over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.

However, the intensity of the rain/snow will be high on February 20 and 21. According to private forecaster Skymet, major roads will get blocked and there will be widespread landslide/mudslide in hills. Chances of avalanche are also very high as snow is likely to accumulate, it adds.

Meanwhile light/moderate isolated to scattered rainfall will occur over Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, North Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh between February 18 and 21.

Thunderstorm with hailstorm, lightening and gusty wind can also be expected at some places in the Jammu division, lower reaches of Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand  and the plains on February 20 and 21.

After a slow start around December 15, the winter intensified in January. Another peculiarity this year was fewer days of fog, first due to lack of rains and humidity and later because of strong winds. Low temperatures, low winds and humidity are the factors that lead to the formation of fog.

Interestingly, the IMD had predicted a warm winter this season. It is not the first time an IMD’s prediction went off the mark, the four-month monsoon season last year ended with nine per cent below average rain, less than what it had predicted.

A December 3 statement by India’s official forecaster predicted an “above normal subdivision averaged seasonal minimum temperatures” during the cold weather season (December 2018 to February 2019) over all meteorological subdivisions of the country.

“Below normal Cold Wave (CW) conditions are likely over core CW zone of the country,” it said.

But the severity of January cold ended up breaking several records.

Meteorologists attribute it to disruption in polar vortex—the phenomenon that unleashed freezing temperatures across Europe and severe snowstorms in the USA.