A crutch for each other

Pardeep Sharma in Chandigarh 

The alliance between the INLD and the BSP, which primarily represent Jats and Dalits, is a classic case of ‘marriage of convenience.’ The two social forces are constantly at war with each other to reap short-term political gains in the 2019 Lok Sabha and Assembly elections and stay relevant in Haryana politics.

Fast-eroding political base of both parties has led them to forge an alliance and checkmate the BJP and Congress. It, probably, is the last-ditch effort to grab power by consolidating the Jat and Dalit vote bank in next year’s twin polls.

The INLD, the opposition party in Haryana, has been out of power for 14 years. It desperately wants to win the 2019 Assembly elections. Mayawati’s BSP, on the other hand, is least bothered about its performance in the Assembly elections. Its aim is to play the role of the kingmaker at the national level and INLD can make this happen. 

Prakash Bharati, BSP’s state president, said that both INLD and the BSP have been fighting for the rights of working class and the farming community. “The caste-based violence is a cause of concern. However, if the INLD-BSP alliance comes to power, the violence will be checked,” he asserts. The dominant Jats constitute about 25 per cent of the total electorate in Haryana, while the Dalits are about 20 per cent. Jats are INLD loyalists while a sizeable Dalit electorate make for BSP’s loyal vote bank.  Since 1996, the INLD’s vote share has been hovering between 20 and 25 per cent. And, BSP’s vote share has been 5 per cent.

There are about 40 Assembly seats where the BSP holds a vote share of 7-8 per cent. Besides, in about 60 Assembly seats, the INLD has a vote share of 30 per cent. The alliance’s calculation is that if the INLD and BSP is polled between 30 and 35 per cent votes, it might form the next state government. The possibility is rooted in the fact that the BJP got 33.2 per cent vote in the 2014 Assembly elections and was able to form the government. 

“The INLD-BSP’s combined vote share is set to be higher than the other national parties in the next Assembly elections. The INLD has always worked for bhaichara (brotherhood) among various sections of society and the Mirchpur incident is an aberration,” says Praveen Atri, INLD spokesman.

This is not for the first time that the INLD has entered an alliance with the BSP. During the 1998 Lok Sabha elections, the parties came together.

Perhaps  an important reason for the current INLD-BSP alliance seems to be the poor performance of the INLD in the 17 seats reserved for the SCs in the 2014 state Assembly elections. It could only win in three reserved constituencies while the BJP won nine and the Congress four.

The BSP vote bank is transferable when there is no BSP candidate or the party candidate is weak. Coupled with the lack of sound organisational set up in the state and a charismatic leader with mass base, this has pushed the party to the political margins. Perhaps, this is the reason that the BSP wants to ride piggyback on the INLD in next year’s Parliamentary and Assembly elections.