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Pritam Singh
A report by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has warned the global community about the danger of a climate catastrophe by 2030 if urgent action is not taken to avert global heating and stop biodiversity loss. This warning must be taken seriously for two reasons: first, its scientific authenticity, and second, the consequences for our planet if this warning is ignored.
The UN panel’s report has been prepared by leading climate scientists from all over the world who have been tasked with comparing and contrasting scientific studies to arrive at the conclusions. The conclusions reflect consensus among all members of the panel. This consensus has been criticised in some quarters as an accommodation to those climate scientists who view climate risks less severely than a majority of those who view the risks more severely. However, precisely because of this accommodation, its scientific value is enhanced as this represents the conclusions agreed upon by all panel members.
The ‘deadline’ (2030) is important because according to the modelling exercises done by the panel, if the global temperature rises by 1.5°C in comparison with the pre-industrial age temperature, there would be irreversible and unpredictable changes in the global climate. The pre-industrial age is the period before the middle of the 19th century when the industrial revolution marked a new transition in the evolution of society. The Paris Agreement on climate change in 2015 had identified 2°C rise in global temperature by 2030 in comparison with the pre-industrial age temperature as the tipping point for a climate catastrophe, but the speed of climate change that has taken place since then has meant that now the UN panel has revised that tipping point to 1.5°C rise. This temperature rise becomes even more important if we keep in mind that 1°C rise has already taken place, and humanity is faced with the challenge of preventing just 0.5°C further rise by 2030 if the climate catastrophe has to be avoided.
The meaning of this catastrophe comprises several threatening changes: extreme weather consisting of severe heat waves on the one hand and high snowfall on the other; the rise of sea levels leading to the flooding of coastal regions of the world; the melting of the Arctic ice and Himalayan glaciers caused by global heating which would first lead to severe flooding and later shrinkage of sustainable water resources as a result of the decline in ice formation; droughts caused by severe heatwaves leading to desertification of some regions and resulting in abnormal food shortages; the food and water shortages causing violent social conflicts, such conflicts giving rise to authoritarian modes of political governance; the flooding, acidification of oceans, unprecedented storms and droughts causing large-scale deaths of animals and vulnerable humans consisting of poor and unsheltered persons; such deaths leading to the spread of diseases caused by polluted water and air; deforestation and loss of biodiversity further endangering the ecological balance between life forms.
This threatening catastrophe has been caused mainly by the way our economic system functions. The global dominance of the capitalist mode of production coincided with the rise of the industrial revolution when the scale of environmental destruction rose many times in comparison with the pre-capitalist economic systems. Under capitalism, all natural resources are used intensively and extensively for profit maximisation and fastest possible economic growth. This economic logic conflicts fundamentally with the needs of sustainable development.
The use of energy for production and transportation for distribution has led to a massive rise in the use of fossil fuels, mainly oil, gas and coal. The use of these fossil fuels is the major cause of the rise in global emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases that contribute most significantly to global heating and biodiversity loss. The feared rise of global temperature by more than 1.5°C by 2030 is the result of accumulation of greenhouse emissions in the biosphere that has been taking place since the systematic use of fossil fuels started with the onset of industrial capitalism. This has speeded up in the past few decades due to the globalisation of capitalism.
If the ecological catastrophe must be avoided, an economic system alternative to global capitalism needs to emerge. Given the present global balance of forces, it is unlikely to emerge. There is a need for multiple levels of action at global, national, local, household and personal levels to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The declaration of a ‘climate emergency’ by the governments of the UK, Ireland, Canada and France, and by 740 sub-national jurisdictions in 16 countries is a sign of emerging awareness of the emergency measures that need to be taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to avoid 1.5°C temperature rise by 2030.
The next 11 years would determine whether as a global community, we are capable of collective action to prevent the ecological catastrophe facing our planet. We can hope that drastic times sometimes do lead humans to adopt drastic measures for self-preservation, but we can also not rule out that the objective socio-economic processes of the global capitalist economic system prove so powerful that individual and sub-national efforts prove helpless in preventing the catastrophe. We can only invoke the optimism of the will while we are troubled by the pessimism of the intellect.
The author teaches at Oxford School of Global & Area Studies, University of Oxford
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